Mega Millions Bell Curve Statistics

This page displays a Bell Curve, also known as a Normal Distribution or Gaussian Distribution, for Mega Millions. It shows how frequently the winning numbers add up to a certain sum.

The grey curve on the graph is the expected Bell Curve, which displays how often each sum should have appeared in all draws to date. For example, if there is a 1 in 100 probability that the winning numbers will add up to a certain sum in any given draw, that sum would be expected to appear 10 times over 1,000 draws. The expected Bell Curve is symmetrical and has one mode, which coincides with the mean and the median.

This is overlaid with the actual number of times each sum has appeared in all draws to date (the blue bars). This will match the expected Bell Curve more closely as more draws take place. The curve for draws with a limited history may look more erratic.

Main Numbers:

The data is further laid out in the table below. It shows, for each of the sum totals, how many possible number combinations there are, the expected number of times that each sum should have appeared in all draws to date, and the count of how many times it has actually appeared. The final column shows if a particular sum is overdue. A sum is regarded as overdue if it hasn't appeared for twice the number of draws it is expected to. For example, if there is a 1 in 100 probability of a particular sum appearing, it will be labelled overdue if it hasn't appeared for 201 draws or more.

Some lotteries have undergone rule changes in the past that have affected how many main numbers are drawn. To remain consistent, data is taken only from draws that used the same matrix that is currently in use. This can mean that the statistics for some games are limited.

Mega Ball and Megaplier are not included in these statistics as only one number is drawn in both cases.

Number Sum Total Possible Combinations Expectation Actual Over 280 Draws
Count Frequency Count Last Drawn Draws Ago
15 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
16 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
17 2 0.000 1 in 6,051,507 0 Never Never
18 3 0.000 1 in 4,034,338 0 Never Never
19 5 0.000 1 in 2,420,603 0 Never Never
20 7 0.000 1 in 1,729,002 0 Never Never
21 10 0.000 1 in 1,210,301 0 Never Never
22 13 0.000 1 in 931,001 0 Never Never
23 18 0.000 1 in 672,390 0 Never Never
24 23 0.001 1 in 526,218 0 Never Never
25 30 0.001 1 in 403,434 0 Never Never
26 37 0.001 1 in 327,109 0 Never Never
27 47 0.001 1 in 257,511 0 Never Never
28 57 0.001 1 in 212,334 0 Never Never
29 70 0.002 1 in 172,900 0 Never Never
30 84 0.002 1 in 144,084 0 Never Never
31 101 0.002 1 in 119,832 0 Never Never
32 119 0.003 1 in 101,706 0 Never Never
33 141 0.003 1 in 85,837 0 Never Never
34 164 0.004 1 in 73,799 0 Never Never
35 192 0.004 1 in 63,037 0 Never Never
36 221 0.005 1 in 54,765 0 Never Never
37 255 0.006 1 in 47,463 0 Never Never
38 291 0.007 1 in 41,591 0 Never Never
39 333 0.008 1 in 36,345 0 Never Never
40 377 0.009 1 in 32,103 0 Never Never
41 427 0.010 1 in 28,344 0 Never Never
42 480 0.011 1 in 25,215 0 Never Never
43 540 0.012 1 in 22,413 0 Never Never
44 603 0.014 1 in 20,071 0 Never Never
45 674 0.016 1 in 17,957 0 Never Never
46 748 0.017 1 in 16,181 0 Never Never
47 831 0.019 1 in 14,564 0 Never Never
48 918 0.021 1 in 13,184 1 6/9/2020 8
49 1,014 0.023 1 in 11,936 1 5/4/2018 227
50 1,115 0.026 1 in 10,855 0 Never Never
51 1,226 0.028 1 in 9,872 0 Never Never
52 1,342 0.031 1 in 9,019 0 Never Never
53 1,469 0.034 1 in 8,239 0 Never Never
54 1,602 0.037 1 in 7,555 0 Never Never
55 1,747 0.040 1 in 6,928 1 7/24/2018 204
56 1,898 0.044 1 in 6,377 0 Never Never
57 2,062 0.048 1 in 5,870 0 Never Never
58 2,233 0.052 1 in 5,420 0 Never Never
59 2,418 0.056 1 in 5,005 0 Never Never
60 2,611 0.060 1 in 4,635 0 Never Never
61 2,818 0.065 1 in 4,295 0 Never Never
62 3,034 0.070 1 in 3,989 0 Never Never
63 3,266 0.076 1 in 3,706 0 Never Never
64 3,507 0.081 1 in 3,451 0 Never Never
65 3,765 0.087 1 in 3,215 0 Never Never
66 4,033 0.093 1 in 3,001 0 Never Never
67 4,319 0.100 1 in 2,802 0 Never Never
68 4,616 0.107 1 in 2,622 0 Never Never
69 4,932 0.114 1 in 2,454 0 Never Never
70 5,260 0.122 1 in 2,301 0 Never Never
71 5,608 0.130 1 in 2,158 0 Never Never
72 5,969 0.138 1 in 2,028 0 Never Never
73 6,351 0.147 1 in 1,906 0 Never Never
74 6,747 0.156 1 in 1,794 0 Never Never
75 7,166 0.166 1 in 1,689 1 3/24/2020 30
76 7,599 0.176 1 in 1,593 1 2/2/2018 253
77 8,056 0.186 1 in 1,502 0 Never Never
78 8,529 0.197 1 in 1,419 2 10/22/2019 74
79 9,027 0.209 1 in 1,341 0 Never Never
80 9,542 0.221 1 in 1,268 1 8/10/2018 199
81 10,082 0.233 1 in 1,200 0 Never Never
82 10,640 0.246 1 in 1,138 0 Never Never
83 11,225 0.260 1 in 1,078 0 Never Never
84 11,828 0.274 1 in 1,023 0 Never Never
85 12,458 0.288 1 in 972 0 Never Never
86 13,107 0.303 1 in 923 2 1/24/2020 47
87 13,784 0.319 1 in 878 2 8/24/2018 195
88 14,480 0.335 1 in 836 1 10/8/2019 78
89 15,204 0.352 1 in 796 0 Never Never
90 15,948 0.369 1 in 759 1 6/22/2018 213
91 16,720 0.387 1 in 724 0 Never Never
92 17,512 0.405 1 in 691 0 Never Never
93 18,332 0.424 1 in 660 0 Never Never
94 19,172 0.444 1 in 631 0 Never Never
95 20,041 0.464 1 in 604 0 Never Never
96 20,929 0.484 1 in 578 2 10/29/2019 72
97 21,845 0.505 1 in 554 0 Never Never
98 22,781 0.527 1 in 531 0 Never Never
99 23,745 0.549 1 in 510 0 Never Never
100 24,728 0.572 1 in 489 1 2/21/2020 39
101 25,738 0.595 1 in 470 0 Never Never
102 26,767 0.619 1 in 452 0 Never Never
103 27,823 0.644 1 in 435 1 5/5/2020 18
104 28,897 0.669 1 in 419 0 Never Never
105 29,997 0.694 1 in 403 1 3/6/2018 244
106 31,114 0.720 1 in 389 0 Never Never
107 32,257 0.746 1 in 375 2 6/2/2020 10
108 33,416 0.773 1 in 362 1 2/23/2018 247
109 34,599 0.800 1 in 350 1 11/21/2017 274
110 35,798 0.828 1 in 338 0 Never Never
111 37,020 0.856 1 in 327 2 1/14/2020 50
112 38,256 0.885 1 in 316 1 7/26/2019 99
113 39,514 0.914 1 in 306 3 7/23/2019 100
114 40,785 0.944 1 in 297 2 11/8/2019 69
115 42,077 0.973 1 in 288 0 Never Never
116 43,380 1.004 1 in 279 0 Never Never
117 44,702 1.034 1 in 271 0 Never Never
118 46,034 1.065 1 in 263 1 10/2/2018 184
119 47,384 1.096 1 in 255 1 12/28/2018 159
120 48,742 1.128 1 in 248 2 6/18/2019 110
121 50,115 1.159 1 in 242 1 12/26/2017 264
122 51,495 1.191 1 in 235 1 12/29/2017 263
123 52,889 1.224 1 in 229 0 Never Never
124 54,287 1.256 1 in 223 3 2/28/2020 37
125 55,697 1.289 1 in 217 4 8/27/2019 90
126 57,109 1.321 1 in 212 2 2/20/2018 248
127 58,531 1.354 1 in 207 1 2/13/2018 250
128 59,953 1.387 1 in 202 1 5/22/2020 13
129 61,382 1.420 1 in 197 1 2/27/2018 246
130 62,809 1.453 1 in 193 1 9/21/2018 187
131 64,241 1.486 1 in 188 3 1/21/2020 48
132 65,668 1.519 1 in 184 1 9/24/2019 82
133 67,097 1.552 1 in 180 2 7/30/2019 98
134 68,519 1.585 1 in 177 1 1/26/2018 255
135 69,941 1.618 1 in 173 1 10/15/2019 76
136 71,352 1.651 1 in 170 0 Never Never
137 72,760 1.683 1 in 166 0 Never Never
138 74,155 1.716 1 in 163 4 2/7/2020 43
139 75,544 1.748 1 in 160 2 5/15/2020 15
140 76,917 1.779 1 in 157 0 Never Never
141 78,280 1.811 1 in 155 2 12/20/2019 57
142 79,624 1.842 1 in 152 0 Never Never
143 80,956 1.873 1 in 150 0 Never Never
144 82,265 1.903 1 in 147 3 6/30/2020 2
145 83,558 1.933 1 in 145 5 11/26/2019 64
146 84,825 1.962 1 in 143 1 5/12/2020 16
147 86,073 1.991 1 in 141 3 5/29/2020 11
148 87,292 2.019 1 in 139 0 Never Never Overdue
149 88,488 2.047 1 in 137 0 Never Never Overdue
150 89,653 2.074 1 in 135 2 8/13/2019 94
151 90,792 2.100 1 in 133 4 6/23/2020 4
152 91,897 2.126 1 in 132 0 Never Never Overdue
153 92,973 2.151 1 in 130 3 3/13/2020 33
154 94,013 2.175 1 in 129 4 6/16/2020 6
155 95,022 2.198 1 in 127 1 7/16/2019 102
156 95,992 2.221 1 in 126 3 5/28/2019 116
157 96,928 2.242 1 in 125 1 8/6/2019 96
158 97,824 2.263 1 in 124 2 2/11/2020 42
159 98,684 2.283 1 in 123 1 2/8/2019 147
160 99,502 2.302 1 in 122 5 11/29/2019 63
161 100,281 2.320 1 in 121 1 8/20/2019 92
162 101,017 2.337 1 in 120 6 12/13/2019 59
163 101,713 2.353 1 in 119 2 10/11/2019 77
164 102,364 2.368 1 in 118 1 7/6/2018 209
165 102,973 2.382 1 in 118 2 11/20/2018 170
166 103,536 2.395 1 in 117 2 3/27/2020 29
167 104,056 2.407 1 in 116 3 10/1/2019 80
168 104,529 2.418 1 in 116 1 11/15/2019 67
169 104,957 2.428 1 in 115 1 4/9/2019 130
170 105,338 2.437 1 in 115 3 1/8/2019 156
171 105,673 2.445 1 in 115 2 6/7/2019 113
172 105,960 2.451 1 in 114 4 9/17/2019 84
173 106,200 2.457 1 in 114 3 3/3/2020 36
174 106,392 2.461 1 in 114 1 1/12/2018 259 Overdue
175 106,537 2.465 1 in 114 3 8/2/2019 97
176 106,633 2.467 1 in 114 3 4/23/2019 126
177 106,681 2.468 1 in 113 2 10/25/2019 73
178 106,681 2.468 1 in 113 2 5/8/2020 17
179 106,633 2.467 1 in 114 1 1/22/2019 152
180 106,537 2.465 1 in 114 2 9/13/2019 85
181 106,392 2.461 1 in 114 2 9/7/2018 191
182 106,200 2.457 1 in 114 1 1/17/2020 49
183 105,960 2.451 1 in 114 1 9/3/2019 88
184 105,673 2.445 1 in 115 0 Never Never Overdue
185 105,338 2.437 1 in 115 4 8/23/2019 91
186 104,957 2.428 1 in 115 2 7/12/2019 103
187 104,529 2.418 1 in 116 3 4/24/2020 21
188 104,056 2.407 1 in 116 2 4/17/2020 23
189 103,536 2.395 1 in 117 2 4/21/2020 22
190 102,973 2.382 1 in 118 4 5/1/2020 19
191 102,364 2.368 1 in 118 0 Never Never Overdue
192 101,713 2.353 1 in 119 2 3/17/2020 32
193 101,017 2.337 1 in 120 3 6/11/2019 112
194 100,281 2.320 1 in 121 2 3/10/2020 34
195 99,502 2.302 1 in 122 2 10/9/2018 182
196 98,684 2.283 1 in 123 5 2/19/2019 144
197 97,824 2.263 1 in 124 1 10/5/2018 183
198 96,928 2.242 1 in 125 4 12/6/2019 61
199 95,992 2.221 1 in 126 5 7/3/2020 1
200 95,022 2.198 1 in 127 0 Never Never Overdue
201 94,013 2.175 1 in 129 1 2/12/2019 146
202 92,973 2.151 1 in 130 5 6/26/2020 3
203 91,897 2.126 1 in 132 1 3/31/2020 28
204 90,792 2.100 1 in 133 2 12/19/2017 266
205 89,653 2.074 1 in 135 1 10/12/2018 181
206 88,488 2.047 1 in 137 1 6/5/2020 9
207 87,292 2.019 1 in 139 0 Never Never Overdue
208 86,073 1.991 1 in 141 2 5/25/2018 221
209 84,825 1.962 1 in 143 4 3/20/2020 31
210 83,558 1.933 1 in 145 4 1/10/2020 51
211 82,265 1.903 1 in 147 4 1/31/2020 45
212 80,956 1.873 1 in 150 2 1/29/2019 150
213 79,624 1.842 1 in 152 1 1/28/2020 46
214 78,280 1.811 1 in 155 3 1/7/2020 52
215 76,917 1.779 1 in 157 3 10/26/2018 177
216 75,544 1.748 1 in 160 2 12/17/2019 58
217 74,155 1.716 1 in 163 2 6/12/2020 7
218 72,760 1.683 1 in 166 4 12/27/2019 55
219 71,352 1.651 1 in 170 2 1/18/2019 153
220 69,941 1.618 1 in 173 1 4/7/2020 26
221 68,519 1.585 1 in 177 3 4/3/2020 27
222 67,097 1.552 1 in 180 1 11/19/2019 66
223 65,668 1.519 1 in 184 1 3/22/2019 135
224 64,241 1.486 1 in 188 3 6/4/2019 114
225 62,809 1.453 1 in 193 1 9/11/2018 190
226 61,382 1.420 1 in 197 2 10/19/2018 179
227 59,953 1.387 1 in 202 2 3/1/2019 141
228 58,531 1.354 1 in 207 1 6/14/2019 111
229 57,109 1.321 1 in 212 1 5/21/2019 118
230 55,697 1.289 1 in 217 1 10/23/2018 178
231 54,287 1.256 1 in 223 1 11/24/2017 273
232 52,889 1.224 1 in 229 1 12/31/2019 54
233 51,495 1.191 1 in 235 1 4/30/2019 124
234 50,115 1.159 1 in 242 1 9/10/2019 86
235 48,742 1.128 1 in 248 0 Never Never
236 47,384 1.096 1 in 255 1 1/3/2020 53
237 46,034 1.065 1 in 263 2 9/18/2018 188
238 44,702 1.034 1 in 271 0 Never Never
239 43,380 1.004 1 in 279 0 Never Never
240 42,077 0.973 1 in 288 1 3/19/2019 136
241 40,785 0.944 1 in 297 1 12/24/2019 56
242 39,514 0.914 1 in 306 0 Never Never
243 38,256 0.885 1 in 316 0 Never Never
244 37,020 0.856 1 in 327 0 Never Never
245 35,798 0.828 1 in 338 1 2/4/2020 44
246 34,599 0.800 1 in 350 1 8/9/2019 95
247 33,416 0.773 1 in 362 1 3/6/2020 35
248 32,257 0.746 1 in 375 0 Never Never
249 31,114 0.720 1 in 389 0 Never Never
250 29,997 0.694 1 in 403 0 Never Never
251 28,897 0.669 1 in 419 1 9/28/2018 185
252 27,823 0.644 1 in 435 1 11/7/2017 278
253 26,767 0.619 1 in 452 0 Never Never
254 25,738 0.595 1 in 470 0 Never Never
255 24,728 0.572 1 in 489 0 Never Never
256 23,745 0.549 1 in 510 0 Never Never
257 22,781 0.527 1 in 531 0 Never Never
258 21,845 0.505 1 in 554 1 12/3/2019 62
259 20,929 0.484 1 in 578 0 Never Never
260 20,041 0.464 1 in 604 0 Never Never
261 19,172 0.444 1 in 631 2 4/2/2019 132
262 18,332 0.424 1 in 660 0 Never Never
263 17,512 0.405 1 in 691 0 Never Never
264 16,720 0.387 1 in 724 0 Never Never
265 15,948 0.369 1 in 759 1 5/26/2020 12
266 15,204 0.352 1 in 796 0 Never Never
267 14,480 0.335 1 in 836 1 1/1/2019 158
268 13,784 0.319 1 in 878 1 10/18/2019 75
269 13,107 0.303 1 in 923 1 11/16/2018 171
270 12,458 0.288 1 in 972 0 Never Never
271 11,828 0.274 1 in 1,023 2 5/14/2019 120
272 11,225 0.260 1 in 1,078 0 Never Never
273 10,640 0.246 1 in 1,138 0 Never Never
274 10,082 0.233 1 in 1,200 0 Never Never
275 9,542 0.221 1 in 1,268 1 7/17/2018 206
276 9,027 0.209 1 in 1,341 0 Never Never
277 8,529 0.197 1 in 1,419 0 Never Never
278 8,056 0.186 1 in 1,502 0 Never Never
279 7,599 0.176 1 in 1,593 0 Never Never
280 7,166 0.166 1 in 1,689 1 4/14/2020 24
281 6,747 0.156 1 in 1,794 0 Never Never
282 6,351 0.147 1 in 1,906 0 Never Never
283 5,969 0.138 1 in 2,028 0 Never Never
284 5,608 0.130 1 in 2,158 0 Never Never
285 5,260 0.122 1 in 2,301 0 Never Never
286 4,932 0.114 1 in 2,454 0 Never Never
287 4,616 0.107 1 in 2,622 0 Never Never
288 4,319 0.100 1 in 2,802 0 Never Never
289 4,033 0.093 1 in 3,001 0 Never Never
290 3,765 0.087 1 in 3,215 0 Never Never
291 3,507 0.081 1 in 3,451 0 Never Never
292 3,266 0.076 1 in 3,706 0 Never Never
293 3,034 0.070 1 in 3,989 0 Never Never
294 2,818 0.065 1 in 4,295 0 Never Never
295 2,611 0.060 1 in 4,635 0 Never Never
296 2,418 0.056 1 in 5,005 0 Never Never
297 2,233 0.052 1 in 5,420 0 Never Never
298 2,062 0.048 1 in 5,870 0 Never Never
299 1,898 0.044 1 in 6,377 0 Never Never
300 1,747 0.040 1 in 6,928 0 Never Never
301 1,602 0.037 1 in 7,555 0 Never Never
302 1,469 0.034 1 in 8,239 0 Never Never
303 1,342 0.031 1 in 9,019 0 Never Never
304 1,226 0.028 1 in 9,872 0 Never Never
305 1,115 0.026 1 in 10,855 0 Never Never
306 1,014 0.023 1 in 11,936 0 Never Never
307 918 0.021 1 in 13,184 0 Never Never
308 831 0.019 1 in 14,564 0 Never Never
309 748 0.017 1 in 16,181 0 Never Never
310 674 0.016 1 in 17,957 0 Never Never
311 603 0.014 1 in 20,071 0 Never Never
312 540 0.012 1 in 22,413 0 Never Never
313 480 0.011 1 in 25,215 0 Never Never
314 427 0.010 1 in 28,344 0 Never Never
315 377 0.009 1 in 32,103 0 Never Never
316 333 0.008 1 in 36,345 0 Never Never
317 291 0.007 1 in 41,591 0 Never Never
318 255 0.006 1 in 47,463 0 Never Never
319 221 0.005 1 in 54,765 0 Never Never
320 192 0.004 1 in 63,037 0 Never Never
321 164 0.004 1 in 73,799 0 Never Never
322 141 0.003 1 in 85,837 0 Never Never
323 119 0.003 1 in 101,706 0 Never Never
324 101 0.002 1 in 119,832 0 Never Never
325 84 0.002 1 in 144,084 0 Never Never
326 70 0.002 1 in 172,900 0 Never Never
327 57 0.001 1 in 212,334 0 Never Never
328 47 0.001 1 in 257,511 0 Never Never
329 37 0.001 1 in 327,109 0 Never Never
330 30 0.001 1 in 403,434 0 Never Never
331 23 0.001 1 in 526,218 0 Never Never
332 18 0.000 1 in 672,390 0 Never Never
333 13 0.000 1 in 931,001 0 Never Never
334 10 0.000 1 in 1,210,301 0 Never Never
335 7 0.000 1 in 1,729,002 0 Never Never
336 5 0.000 1 in 2,420,603 0 Never Never
337 3 0.000 1 in 4,034,338 0 Never Never
338 2 0.000 1 in 6,051,507 0 Never Never
339 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
340 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never

Page Last Updated: Saturday, 4 July 2020 05:19 AM