Mega Millions Bell Curve Statistics

This page displays a Bell Curve, also known as a Normal Distribution or Gaussian Distribution, for Mega Millions. It shows how frequently the winning numbers add up to a certain sum.

The grey curve on the graph is the expected Bell Curve, which displays how often each sum should have appeared in all draws to date. For example, if there is a 1 in 100 probability that the winning numbers will add up to a certain sum in any given draw, that sum would be expected to appear 10 times over 1,000 draws. The expected Bell Curve is symmetrical and has one mode, which coincides with the mean and the median.

This is overlaid with the actual number of times each sum has appeared in all draws to date (the blue bars). This will match the expected Bell Curve more closely as more draws take place. The curve for draws with a limited history may look more erratic.

Main Numbers:

The data is further laid out in the table below. It shows, for each of the sum totals, how many possible number combinations there are, the expected number of times that each sum should have appeared in all draws to date, and the count of how many times it has actually appeared. The final column shows if a particular sum is overdue. A sum is regarded as overdue if it hasn't appeared for twice the number of draws it is expected to. For example, if there is a 1 in 100 probability of a particular sum appearing, it will be labelled overdue if it hasn't appeared for 201 draws or more.

Some lotteries have undergone rule changes in the past that have affected how many main numbers are drawn. To remain consistent, data is taken only from draws that used the same matrix that is currently in use. This can mean that the statistics for some games are limited.

Mega Ball and Megaplier are not included in these statistics as only one number is drawn in both cases.

Number Sum Total Possible Combinations Expectation Actual Over 301 Draws
Count Frequency Count Last Drawn Draws Ago
15 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
16 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
17 2 0.000 1 in 6,051,507 0 Never Never
18 3 0.000 1 in 4,034,338 0 Never Never
19 5 0.000 1 in 2,420,603 0 Never Never
20 7 0.000 1 in 1,729,002 0 Never Never
21 10 0.000 1 in 1,210,302 0 Never Never
22 13 0.000 1 in 931,001 0 Never Never
23 18 0.000 1 in 672,390 0 Never Never
24 23 0.001 1 in 526,218 0 Never Never
25 30 0.001 1 in 403,434 0 Never Never
26 37 0.001 1 in 327,109 0 Never Never
27 47 0.001 1 in 257,511 0 Never Never
28 57 0.001 1 in 212,334 0 Never Never
29 70 0.002 1 in 172,900 0 Never Never
30 84 0.002 1 in 144,084 0 Never Never
31 101 0.003 1 in 119,832 0 Never Never
32 119 0.003 1 in 101,706 0 Never Never
33 141 0.004 1 in 85,837 0 Never Never
34 164 0.004 1 in 73,799 0 Never Never
35 192 0.005 1 in 63,037 0 Never Never
36 221 0.005 1 in 54,765 0 Never Never
37 255 0.006 1 in 47,463 0 Never Never
38 291 0.007 1 in 41,591 0 Never Never
39 333 0.008 1 in 36,345 0 Never Never
40 377 0.009 1 in 32,103 0 Never Never
41 427 0.011 1 in 28,344 0 Never Never
42 480 0.012 1 in 25,215 0 Never Never
43 540 0.013 1 in 22,413 0 Never Never
44 603 0.015 1 in 20,071 0 Never Never
45 674 0.017 1 in 17,957 0 Never Never
46 748 0.019 1 in 16,181 0 Never Never
47 831 0.021 1 in 14,564 0 Never Never
48 918 0.023 1 in 13,184 1 6/9/2020 29
49 1,014 0.025 1 in 11,936 1 5/4/2018 248
50 1,115 0.028 1 in 10,855 0 Never Never
51 1,226 0.030 1 in 9,872 0 Never Never
52 1,342 0.033 1 in 9,019 0 Never Never
53 1,469 0.037 1 in 8,239 0 Never Never
54 1,602 0.040 1 in 7,555 0 Never Never
55 1,747 0.043 1 in 6,928 1 7/24/2018 225
56 1,898 0.047 1 in 6,377 0 Never Never
57 2,062 0.051 1 in 5,870 0 Never Never
58 2,233 0.056 1 in 5,420 0 Never Never
59 2,418 0.060 1 in 5,005 0 Never Never
60 2,611 0.065 1 in 4,635 0 Never Never
61 2,818 0.070 1 in 4,295 0 Never Never
62 3,034 0.075 1 in 3,989 0 Never Never
63 3,266 0.081 1 in 3,706 0 Never Never
64 3,507 0.087 1 in 3,451 0 Never Never
65 3,765 0.094 1 in 3,215 0 Never Never
66 4,033 0.100 1 in 3,001 0 Never Never
67 4,319 0.107 1 in 2,802 0 Never Never
68 4,616 0.115 1 in 2,622 0 Never Never
69 4,932 0.123 1 in 2,454 0 Never Never
70 5,260 0.131 1 in 2,301 0 Never Never
71 5,608 0.139 1 in 2,158 0 Never Never
72 5,969 0.148 1 in 2,028 0 Never Never
73 6,351 0.158 1 in 1,906 0 Never Never
74 6,747 0.168 1 in 1,794 0 Never Never
75 7,166 0.178 1 in 1,689 1 3/24/2020 51
76 7,599 0.189 1 in 1,593 1 2/2/2018 274
77 8,056 0.200 1 in 1,502 0 Never Never
78 8,529 0.212 1 in 1,419 2 10/22/2019 95
79 9,027 0.225 1 in 1,341 0 Never Never
80 9,542 0.237 1 in 1,268 1 8/10/2018 220
81 10,082 0.251 1 in 1,200 0 Never Never
82 10,640 0.265 1 in 1,138 0 Never Never
83 11,225 0.279 1 in 1,078 0 Never Never
84 11,828 0.294 1 in 1,023 0 Never Never
85 12,458 0.310 1 in 972 0 Never Never
86 13,107 0.326 1 in 923 2 1/24/2020 68
87 13,784 0.343 1 in 878 2 8/24/2018 216
88 14,480 0.360 1 in 836 1 10/8/2019 99
89 15,204 0.378 1 in 796 0 Never Never
90 15,948 0.397 1 in 759 1 6/22/2018 234
91 16,720 0.416 1 in 724 0 Never Never
92 17,512 0.436 1 in 691 0 Never Never
93 18,332 0.456 1 in 660 0 Never Never
94 19,172 0.477 1 in 631 0 Never Never
95 20,041 0.498 1 in 604 0 Never Never
96 20,929 0.521 1 in 578 2 10/29/2019 93
97 21,845 0.543 1 in 554 0 Never Never
98 22,781 0.567 1 in 531 0 Never Never
99 23,745 0.591 1 in 510 0 Never Never
100 24,728 0.615 1 in 489 1 2/21/2020 60
101 25,738 0.640 1 in 470 0 Never Never
102 26,767 0.666 1 in 452 0 Never Never
103 27,823 0.692 1 in 435 1 5/5/2020 39
104 28,897 0.719 1 in 419 0 Never Never
105 29,997 0.746 1 in 403 1 3/6/2018 265
106 31,114 0.774 1 in 389 0 Never Never
107 32,257 0.802 1 in 375 3 8/25/2020 7
108 33,416 0.831 1 in 362 1 2/23/2018 268
109 34,599 0.860 1 in 350 1 11/21/2017 295
110 35,798 0.890 1 in 338 0 Never Never
111 37,020 0.921 1 in 327 2 1/14/2020 71
112 38,256 0.951 1 in 316 1 7/26/2019 120
113 39,514 0.983 1 in 306 3 7/23/2019 121
114 40,785 1.014 1 in 297 2 11/8/2019 90
115 42,077 1.046 1 in 288 0 Never Never
116 43,380 1.079 1 in 279 0 Never Never
117 44,702 1.112 1 in 271 0 Never Never
118 46,034 1.145 1 in 263 1 10/2/2018 205
119 47,384 1.178 1 in 255 1 12/28/2018 180
120 48,742 1.212 1 in 248 3 9/8/2020 3
121 50,115 1.246 1 in 242 1 12/26/2017 285
122 51,495 1.281 1 in 235 1 12/29/2017 284
123 52,889 1.315 1 in 229 0 Never Never
124 54,287 1.350 1 in 223 3 2/28/2020 58
125 55,697 1.385 1 in 217 4 8/27/2019 111
126 57,109 1.420 1 in 212 2 2/20/2018 269
127 58,531 1.456 1 in 207 1 2/13/2018 271
128 59,953 1.491 1 in 202 1 5/22/2020 34
129 61,382 1.527 1 in 197 2 7/28/2020 15
130 62,809 1.562 1 in 193 1 9/21/2018 208
131 64,241 1.598 1 in 188 3 1/21/2020 69
132 65,668 1.633 1 in 184 1 9/24/2019 103
133 67,097 1.669 1 in 180 3 8/18/2020 9
134 68,519 1.704 1 in 177 2 7/7/2020 21
135 69,941 1.739 1 in 173 1 10/15/2019 97
136 71,352 1.775 1 in 170 0 Never Never
137 72,760 1.810 1 in 166 0 Never Never
138 74,155 1.844 1 in 163 4 2/7/2020 64
139 75,544 1.879 1 in 160 2 5/15/2020 36
140 76,917 1.913 1 in 157 0 Never Never
141 78,280 1.947 1 in 155 2 12/20/2019 78
142 79,624 1.980 1 in 152 0 Never Never
143 80,956 2.013 1 in 150 0 Never Never Overdue
144 82,265 2.046 1 in 147 3 6/30/2020 23
145 83,558 2.078 1 in 145 6 8/14/2020 10
146 84,825 2.110 1 in 143 2 9/4/2020 4
147 86,073 2.141 1 in 141 4 7/10/2020 20
148 87,292 2.171 1 in 139 0 Never Never Overdue
149 88,488 2.201 1 in 137 2 7/21/2020 17
150 89,653 2.230 1 in 135 2 8/13/2019 115
151 90,792 2.258 1 in 133 5 9/1/2020 5
152 91,897 2.285 1 in 132 0 Never Never Overdue
153 92,973 2.312 1 in 130 3 3/13/2020 54
154 94,013 2.338 1 in 129 4 6/16/2020 27
155 95,022 2.363 1 in 127 1 7/16/2019 123
156 95,992 2.387 1 in 126 3 5/28/2019 137
157 96,928 2.411 1 in 125 1 8/6/2019 117
158 97,824 2.433 1 in 124 4 8/11/2020 11
159 98,684 2.454 1 in 123 1 2/8/2019 168
160 99,502 2.475 1 in 122 5 11/29/2019 84
161 100,281 2.494 1 in 121 1 8/20/2019 113
162 101,017 2.512 1 in 120 7 8/21/2020 8
163 101,713 2.530 1 in 119 2 10/11/2019 98
164 102,364 2.546 1 in 118 2 9/11/2020 2
165 102,973 2.561 1 in 118 2 11/20/2018 191
166 103,536 2.575 1 in 117 2 3/27/2020 50
167 104,056 2.588 1 in 116 3 10/1/2019 101
168 104,529 2.600 1 in 116 1 11/15/2019 88
169 104,957 2.610 1 in 115 1 4/9/2019 151
170 105,338 2.620 1 in 115 3 1/8/2019 177
171 105,673 2.628 1 in 115 2 6/7/2019 134
172 105,960 2.635 1 in 114 4 9/17/2019 105
173 106,200 2.641 1 in 114 3 3/3/2020 57
174 106,392 2.646 1 in 114 1 1/12/2018 280 Overdue
175 106,537 2.650 1 in 114 3 8/2/2019 118
176 106,633 2.652 1 in 114 3 4/23/2019 147
177 106,681 2.653 1 in 113 2 10/25/2019 94
178 106,681 2.653 1 in 113 2 5/8/2020 38
179 106,633 2.652 1 in 114 2 8/28/2020 6
180 106,537 2.650 1 in 114 2 9/13/2019 106
181 106,392 2.646 1 in 114 2 9/7/2018 212
182 106,200 2.641 1 in 114 1 1/17/2020 70
183 105,960 2.635 1 in 114 1 9/3/2019 109
184 105,673 2.628 1 in 115 0 Never Never Overdue
185 105,338 2.620 1 in 115 4 8/23/2019 112
186 104,957 2.610 1 in 115 2 7/12/2019 124
187 104,529 2.600 1 in 116 3 4/24/2020 42
188 104,056 2.588 1 in 116 2 4/17/2020 44
189 103,536 2.575 1 in 117 2 4/21/2020 43
190 102,973 2.561 1 in 118 4 5/1/2020 40
191 102,364 2.546 1 in 118 0 Never Never Overdue
192 101,713 2.530 1 in 119 3 7/24/2020 16
193 101,017 2.512 1 in 120 3 6/11/2019 133
194 100,281 2.494 1 in 121 2 3/10/2020 55
195 99,502 2.475 1 in 122 2 10/9/2018 203
196 98,684 2.454 1 in 123 5 2/19/2019 165
197 97,824 2.433 1 in 124 1 10/5/2018 204
198 96,928 2.411 1 in 125 4 12/6/2019 82
199 95,992 2.387 1 in 126 5 7/3/2020 22
200 95,022 2.363 1 in 127 0 Never Never Overdue
201 94,013 2.338 1 in 129 1 2/12/2019 167
202 92,973 2.312 1 in 130 5 6/26/2020 24
203 91,897 2.285 1 in 132 1 3/31/2020 49
204 90,792 2.258 1 in 133 2 12/19/2017 287 Overdue
205 89,653 2.230 1 in 135 1 10/12/2018 202
206 88,488 2.201 1 in 137 1 6/5/2020 30
207 87,292 2.171 1 in 139 1 7/14/2020 19
208 86,073 2.141 1 in 141 2 5/25/2018 242
209 84,825 2.110 1 in 143 4 3/20/2020 52
210 83,558 2.078 1 in 145 5 7/31/2020 14
211 82,265 2.046 1 in 147 4 1/31/2020 66
212 80,956 2.013 1 in 150 3 9/15/2020 1
213 79,624 1.980 1 in 152 1 1/28/2020 67
214 78,280 1.947 1 in 155 3 1/7/2020 73
215 76,917 1.913 1 in 157 3 10/26/2018 198
216 75,544 1.879 1 in 160 2 12/17/2019 79
217 74,155 1.844 1 in 163 2 6/12/2020 28
218 72,760 1.810 1 in 166 4 12/27/2019 76
219 71,352 1.775 1 in 170 2 1/18/2019 174
220 69,941 1.739 1 in 173 1 4/7/2020 47
221 68,519 1.704 1 in 177 3 4/3/2020 48
222 67,097 1.669 1 in 180 1 11/19/2019 87
223 65,668 1.633 1 in 184 1 3/22/2019 156
224 64,241 1.598 1 in 188 3 6/4/2019 135
225 62,809 1.562 1 in 193 1 9/11/2018 211
226 61,382 1.527 1 in 197 2 10/19/2018 200
227 59,953 1.491 1 in 202 2 3/1/2019 162
228 58,531 1.456 1 in 207 1 6/14/2019 132
229 57,109 1.420 1 in 212 1 5/21/2019 139
230 55,697 1.385 1 in 217 1 10/23/2018 199
231 54,287 1.350 1 in 223 1 11/24/2017 294
232 52,889 1.315 1 in 229 1 12/31/2019 75
233 51,495 1.281 1 in 235 1 4/30/2019 145
234 50,115 1.246 1 in 242 1 9/10/2019 107
235 48,742 1.212 1 in 248 1 8/7/2020 12
236 47,384 1.178 1 in 255 1 1/3/2020 74
237 46,034 1.145 1 in 263 2 9/18/2018 209
238 44,702 1.112 1 in 271 0 Never Never
239 43,380 1.079 1 in 279 0 Never Never
240 42,077 1.046 1 in 288 1 3/19/2019 157
241 40,785 1.014 1 in 297 1 12/24/2019 77
242 39,514 0.983 1 in 306 0 Never Never
243 38,256 0.951 1 in 316 0 Never Never
244 37,020 0.921 1 in 327 0 Never Never
245 35,798 0.890 1 in 338 1 2/4/2020 65
246 34,599 0.860 1 in 350 1 8/9/2019 116
247 33,416 0.831 1 in 362 1 3/6/2020 56
248 32,257 0.802 1 in 375 0 Never Never
249 31,114 0.774 1 in 389 0 Never Never
250 29,997 0.746 1 in 403 0 Never Never
251 28,897 0.719 1 in 419 1 9/28/2018 206
252 27,823 0.692 1 in 435 1 11/7/2017 299
253 26,767 0.666 1 in 452 0 Never Never
254 25,738 0.640 1 in 470 0 Never Never
255 24,728 0.615 1 in 489 0 Never Never
256 23,745 0.591 1 in 510 0 Never Never
257 22,781 0.567 1 in 531 0 Never Never
258 21,845 0.543 1 in 554 1 12/3/2019 83
259 20,929 0.521 1 in 578 0 Never Never
260 20,041 0.498 1 in 604 0 Never Never
261 19,172 0.477 1 in 631 2 4/2/2019 153
262 18,332 0.456 1 in 660 0 Never Never
263 17,512 0.436 1 in 691 0 Never Never
264 16,720 0.416 1 in 724 0 Never Never
265 15,948 0.397 1 in 759 1 5/26/2020 33
266 15,204 0.378 1 in 796 0 Never Never
267 14,480 0.360 1 in 836 1 1/1/2019 179
268 13,784 0.343 1 in 878 1 10/18/2019 96
269 13,107 0.326 1 in 923 1 11/16/2018 192
270 12,458 0.310 1 in 972 0 Never Never
271 11,828 0.294 1 in 1,023 2 5/14/2019 141
272 11,225 0.279 1 in 1,078 0 Never Never
273 10,640 0.265 1 in 1,138 0 Never Never
274 10,082 0.251 1 in 1,200 0 Never Never
275 9,542 0.237 1 in 1,268 1 7/17/2018 227
276 9,027 0.225 1 in 1,341 0 Never Never
277 8,529 0.212 1 in 1,419 0 Never Never
278 8,056 0.200 1 in 1,502 0 Never Never
279 7,599 0.189 1 in 1,593 0 Never Never
280 7,166 0.178 1 in 1,689 1 4/14/2020 45
281 6,747 0.168 1 in 1,794 0 Never Never
282 6,351 0.158 1 in 1,906 0 Never Never
283 5,969 0.148 1 in 2,028 0 Never Never
284 5,608 0.139 1 in 2,158 0 Never Never
285 5,260 0.131 1 in 2,301 0 Never Never
286 4,932 0.123 1 in 2,454 0 Never Never
287 4,616 0.115 1 in 2,622 0 Never Never
288 4,319 0.107 1 in 2,802 0 Never Never
289 4,033 0.100 1 in 3,001 0 Never Never
290 3,765 0.094 1 in 3,215 0 Never Never
291 3,507 0.087 1 in 3,451 0 Never Never
292 3,266 0.081 1 in 3,706 0 Never Never
293 3,034 0.075 1 in 3,989 0 Never Never
294 2,818 0.070 1 in 4,295 0 Never Never
295 2,611 0.065 1 in 4,635 0 Never Never
296 2,418 0.060 1 in 5,005 0 Never Never
297 2,233 0.056 1 in 5,420 0 Never Never
298 2,062 0.051 1 in 5,870 0 Never Never
299 1,898 0.047 1 in 6,377 0 Never Never
300 1,747 0.043 1 in 6,928 0 Never Never
301 1,602 0.040 1 in 7,555 0 Never Never
302 1,469 0.037 1 in 8,239 0 Never Never
303 1,342 0.033 1 in 9,019 0 Never Never
304 1,226 0.030 1 in 9,872 0 Never Never
305 1,115 0.028 1 in 10,855 0 Never Never
306 1,014 0.025 1 in 11,936 0 Never Never
307 918 0.023 1 in 13,184 0 Never Never
308 831 0.021 1 in 14,564 0 Never Never
309 748 0.019 1 in 16,181 0 Never Never
310 674 0.017 1 in 17,957 0 Never Never
311 603 0.015 1 in 20,071 0 Never Never
312 540 0.013 1 in 22,413 0 Never Never
313 480 0.012 1 in 25,215 0 Never Never
314 427 0.011 1 in 28,344 0 Never Never
315 377 0.009 1 in 32,103 0 Never Never
316 333 0.008 1 in 36,345 0 Never Never
317 291 0.007 1 in 41,591 0 Never Never
318 255 0.006 1 in 47,463 0 Never Never
319 221 0.005 1 in 54,765 0 Never Never
320 192 0.005 1 in 63,037 0 Never Never
321 164 0.004 1 in 73,799 0 Never Never
322 141 0.004 1 in 85,837 0 Never Never
323 119 0.003 1 in 101,706 0 Never Never
324 101 0.003 1 in 119,832 0 Never Never
325 84 0.002 1 in 144,084 0 Never Never
326 70 0.002 1 in 172,900 0 Never Never
327 57 0.001 1 in 212,334 0 Never Never
328 47 0.001 1 in 257,511 0 Never Never
329 37 0.001 1 in 327,109 0 Never Never
330 30 0.001 1 in 403,434 0 Never Never
331 23 0.001 1 in 526,218 0 Never Never
332 18 0.000 1 in 672,390 0 Never Never
333 13 0.000 1 in 931,001 0 Never Never
334 10 0.000 1 in 1,210,302 0 Never Never
335 7 0.000 1 in 1,729,002 0 Never Never
336 5 0.000 1 in 2,420,603 0 Never Never
337 3 0.000 1 in 4,034,338 0 Never Never
338 2 0.000 1 in 6,051,507 0 Never Never
339 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
340 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never

Page Last Updated: Wednesday, 16 September 2020 05:35 AM