Mega Millions Bell Curve Statistics

This page displays a Bell Curve, also known as a Normal Distribution or Gaussian Distribution, for Mega Millions. It shows how frequently the winning numbers add up to a certain sum.

The grey curve on the graph is the expected Bell Curve, which displays how often each sum should have appeared in all draws to date. For example, if there is a 1 in 100 probability that the winning numbers will add up to a certain sum in any given draw, that sum would be expected to appear 10 times over 1,000 draws. The expected Bell Curve is symmetrical and has one mode, which coincides with the mean and the median.

This is overlaid with the actual number of times each sum has appeared in all draws to date (the blue bars). This will match the expected Bell Curve more closely as more draws take place. The curve for draws with a limited history may look more erratic.

Main Numbers:

The data is further laid out in the table below. It shows, for each of the sum totals, how many possible number combinations there are, the expected number of times that each sum should have appeared in all draws to date, and the count of how many times it has actually appeared. The final column shows if a particular sum is overdue. A sum is regarded as overdue if it hasn't appeared for twice the number of draws it is expected to. For example, if there is a 1 in 100 probability of a particular sum appearing, it will be labelled overdue if it hasn't appeared for 201 draws or more.

Some lotteries have undergone rule changes in the past that have affected how many main numbers are drawn. To remain consistent, data is taken only from draws that used the same matrix that is currently in use. This can mean that the statistics for some games are limited.

Mega Ball and Megaplier are not included in these statistics as only one number is drawn in both cases.

Number Sum Total Possible Combinations Expectation Actual Over 234 Draws
Count Frequency Count Last Drawn Draws Ago
15 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
16 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
17 2 0.000 1 in 6,051,507 0 Never Never
18 3 0.000 1 in 4,034,338 0 Never Never
19 5 0.000 1 in 2,420,603 0 Never Never
20 7 0.000 1 in 1,729,002 0 Never Never
21 10 0.000 1 in 1,210,301 0 Never Never
22 13 0.000 1 in 931,001 0 Never Never
23 18 0.000 1 in 672,390 0 Never Never
24 23 0.000 1 in 526,218 0 Never Never
25 30 0.001 1 in 403,434 0 Never Never
26 37 0.001 1 in 327,109 0 Never Never
27 47 0.001 1 in 257,511 0 Never Never
28 57 0.001 1 in 212,334 0 Never Never
29 70 0.001 1 in 172,900 0 Never Never
30 84 0.002 1 in 144,084 0 Never Never
31 101 0.002 1 in 119,832 0 Never Never
32 119 0.002 1 in 101,706 0 Never Never
33 141 0.003 1 in 85,837 0 Never Never
34 164 0.003 1 in 73,799 0 Never Never
35 192 0.004 1 in 63,037 0 Never Never
36 221 0.004 1 in 54,765 0 Never Never
37 255 0.005 1 in 47,463 0 Never Never
38 291 0.006 1 in 41,591 0 Never Never
39 333 0.006 1 in 36,345 0 Never Never
40 377 0.007 1 in 32,103 0 Never Never
41 427 0.008 1 in 28,344 0 Never Never
42 480 0.009 1 in 25,215 0 Never Never
43 540 0.010 1 in 22,413 0 Never Never
44 603 0.012 1 in 20,071 0 Never Never
45 674 0.013 1 in 17,957 0 Never Never
46 748 0.014 1 in 16,181 0 Never Never
47 831 0.016 1 in 14,564 0 Never Never
48 918 0.018 1 in 13,184 0 Never Never
49 1,014 0.020 1 in 11,936 1 5/4/2018 181
50 1,115 0.022 1 in 10,855 0 Never Never
51 1,226 0.024 1 in 9,872 0 Never Never
52 1,342 0.026 1 in 9,019 0 Never Never
53 1,469 0.028 1 in 8,239 0 Never Never
54 1,602 0.031 1 in 7,555 0 Never Never
55 1,747 0.034 1 in 6,928 1 7/24/2018 158
56 1,898 0.037 1 in 6,377 0 Never Never
57 2,062 0.040 1 in 5,870 0 Never Never
58 2,233 0.043 1 in 5,420 0 Never Never
59 2,418 0.047 1 in 5,005 0 Never Never
60 2,611 0.050 1 in 4,635 0 Never Never
61 2,818 0.054 1 in 4,295 0 Never Never
62 3,034 0.059 1 in 3,989 0 Never Never
63 3,266 0.063 1 in 3,706 0 Never Never
64 3,507 0.068 1 in 3,451 0 Never Never
65 3,765 0.073 1 in 3,215 0 Never Never
66 4,033 0.078 1 in 3,001 0 Never Never
67 4,319 0.084 1 in 2,802 0 Never Never
68 4,616 0.089 1 in 2,622 0 Never Never
69 4,932 0.095 1 in 2,454 0 Never Never
70 5,260 0.102 1 in 2,301 0 Never Never
71 5,608 0.108 1 in 2,158 0 Never Never
72 5,969 0.115 1 in 2,028 0 Never Never
73 6,351 0.123 1 in 1,906 0 Never Never
74 6,747 0.130 1 in 1,794 0 Never Never
75 7,166 0.139 1 in 1,689 0 Never Never
76 7,599 0.147 1 in 1,593 1 2/2/2018 207
77 8,056 0.156 1 in 1,502 0 Never Never
78 8,529 0.165 1 in 1,419 2 10/22/2019 28
79 9,027 0.175 1 in 1,341 0 Never Never
80 9,542 0.184 1 in 1,268 1 8/10/2018 153
81 10,082 0.195 1 in 1,200 0 Never Never
82 10,640 0.206 1 in 1,138 0 Never Never
83 11,225 0.217 1 in 1,078 0 Never Never
84 11,828 0.229 1 in 1,023 0 Never Never
85 12,458 0.241 1 in 972 0 Never Never
86 13,107 0.253 1 in 923 2 1/24/2020 1
87 13,784 0.267 1 in 878 2 8/24/2018 149
88 14,480 0.280 1 in 836 1 10/8/2019 32
89 15,204 0.294 1 in 796 0 Never Never
90 15,948 0.308 1 in 759 1 6/22/2018 167
91 16,720 0.323 1 in 724 0 Never Never
92 17,512 0.339 1 in 691 0 Never Never
93 18,332 0.354 1 in 660 0 Never Never
94 19,172 0.371 1 in 631 0 Never Never
95 20,041 0.387 1 in 604 0 Never Never
96 20,929 0.405 1 in 578 2 10/29/2019 26
97 21,845 0.422 1 in 554 0 Never Never
98 22,781 0.440 1 in 531 0 Never Never
99 23,745 0.459 1 in 510 0 Never Never
100 24,728 0.478 1 in 489 0 Never Never
101 25,738 0.498 1 in 470 0 Never Never
102 26,767 0.518 1 in 452 0 Never Never
103 27,823 0.538 1 in 435 0 Never Never
104 28,897 0.559 1 in 419 0 Never Never
105 29,997 0.580 1 in 403 1 3/6/2018 198
106 31,114 0.602 1 in 389 0 Never Never
107 32,257 0.624 1 in 375 1 12/12/2017 222
108 33,416 0.646 1 in 362 1 2/23/2018 201
109 34,599 0.669 1 in 350 1 11/21/2017 228
110 35,798 0.692 1 in 338 0 Never Never
111 37,020 0.716 1 in 327 2 1/14/2020 4
112 38,256 0.740 1 in 316 1 7/26/2019 53
113 39,514 0.764 1 in 306 3 7/23/2019 54
114 40,785 0.789 1 in 297 2 11/8/2019 23
115 42,077 0.814 1 in 288 0 Never Never
116 43,380 0.839 1 in 279 0 Never Never
117 44,702 0.864 1 in 271 0 Never Never
118 46,034 0.890 1 in 263 1 10/2/2018 138
119 47,384 0.916 1 in 255 1 12/28/2018 113
120 48,742 0.942 1 in 248 2 6/18/2019 64
121 50,115 0.969 1 in 242 1 12/26/2017 218
122 51,495 0.996 1 in 235 1 12/29/2017 217
123 52,889 1.023 1 in 229 0 Never Never
124 54,287 1.050 1 in 223 2 12/7/2018 119
125 55,697 1.077 1 in 217 4 8/27/2019 44
126 57,109 1.104 1 in 212 2 2/20/2018 202
127 58,531 1.132 1 in 207 1 2/13/2018 204
128 59,953 1.159 1 in 202 0 Never Never
129 61,382 1.187 1 in 197 1 2/27/2018 200
130 62,809 1.214 1 in 193 1 9/21/2018 141
131 64,241 1.242 1 in 188 3 1/21/2020 2
132 65,668 1.270 1 in 184 1 9/24/2019 36
133 67,097 1.297 1 in 180 2 7/30/2019 52
134 68,519 1.325 1 in 177 1 1/26/2018 209
135 69,941 1.352 1 in 173 1 10/15/2019 30
136 71,352 1.380 1 in 170 0 Never Never
137 72,760 1.407 1 in 166 0 Never Never
138 74,155 1.434 1 in 163 3 11/22/2019 19
139 75,544 1.461 1 in 160 1 11/23/2018 123
140 76,917 1.487 1 in 157 0 Never Never
141 78,280 1.513 1 in 155 2 12/20/2019 11
142 79,624 1.539 1 in 152 0 Never Never
143 80,956 1.565 1 in 150 0 Never Never
144 82,265 1.591 1 in 147 2 3/12/2019 92
145 83,558 1.616 1 in 145 5 11/26/2019 18
146 84,825 1.640 1 in 143 0 Never Never
147 86,073 1.664 1 in 141 2 6/15/2018 169
148 87,292 1.688 1 in 139 0 Never Never
149 88,488 1.711 1 in 137 0 Never Never
150 89,653 1.733 1 in 135 2 8/13/2019 48
151 90,792 1.755 1 in 133 2 9/27/2019 35
152 91,897 1.777 1 in 132 0 Never Never
153 92,973 1.798 1 in 130 2 1/25/2019 105
154 94,013 1.818 1 in 129 2 5/1/2018 182
155 95,022 1.837 1 in 127 1 7/16/2019 56
156 95,992 1.856 1 in 126 3 5/28/2019 70
157 96,928 1.874 1 in 125 1 8/6/2019 50
158 97,824 1.891 1 in 124 1 1/19/2018 211
159 98,684 1.908 1 in 123 1 2/8/2019 101
160 99,502 1.924 1 in 122 5 11/29/2019 17
161 100,281 1.939 1 in 121 1 8/20/2019 46
162 101,017 1.953 1 in 120 6 12/13/2019 13
163 101,713 1.967 1 in 119 2 10/11/2019 31
164 102,364 1.979 1 in 118 1 7/6/2018 163
165 102,973 1.991 1 in 118 2 11/20/2018 124
166 103,536 2.002 1 in 117 0 Never Never Overdue
167 104,056 2.012 1 in 116 3 10/1/2019 34
168 104,529 2.021 1 in 116 1 11/15/2019 21
169 104,957 2.029 1 in 115 1 4/9/2019 84
170 105,338 2.037 1 in 115 3 1/8/2019 110
171 105,673 2.043 1 in 115 2 6/7/2019 67
172 105,960 2.049 1 in 114 4 9/17/2019 38
173 106,200 2.053 1 in 114 2 5/31/2019 69
174 106,392 2.057 1 in 114 1 1/12/2018 213
175 106,537 2.060 1 in 114 3 8/2/2019 51
176 106,633 2.062 1 in 114 3 4/23/2019 80
177 106,681 2.063 1 in 113 2 10/25/2019 27
178 106,681 2.063 1 in 113 1 12/1/2017 225
179 106,633 2.062 1 in 114 1 1/22/2019 106
180 106,537 2.060 1 in 114 2 9/13/2019 39
181 106,392 2.057 1 in 114 2 9/7/2018 145
182 106,200 2.053 1 in 114 1 1/17/2020 3
183 105,960 2.049 1 in 114 1 9/3/2019 42
184 105,673 2.043 1 in 115 0 Never Never Overdue
185 105,338 2.037 1 in 115 4 8/23/2019 45
186 104,957 2.029 1 in 115 2 7/12/2019 57
187 104,529 2.021 1 in 116 2 4/19/2019 81
188 104,056 2.012 1 in 116 0 Never Never Overdue
189 103,536 2.002 1 in 117 1 6/21/2019 63
190 102,973 1.991 1 in 118 3 9/20/2019 37
191 102,364 1.979 1 in 118 0 Never Never
192 101,713 1.967 1 in 119 1 12/4/2018 120
193 101,017 1.953 1 in 120 3 6/11/2019 66
194 100,281 1.939 1 in 121 1 12/11/2018 118
195 99,502 1.924 1 in 122 2 10/9/2018 136
196 98,684 1.908 1 in 123 5 2/19/2019 98
197 97,824 1.891 1 in 124 1 10/5/2018 137
198 96,928 1.874 1 in 125 4 12/6/2019 15
199 95,992 1.856 1 in 126 2 1/4/2019 111
200 95,022 1.837 1 in 127 0 Never Never
201 94,013 1.818 1 in 129 1 2/12/2019 100
202 92,973 1.798 1 in 130 3 6/28/2019 61
203 91,897 1.777 1 in 132 0 Never Never
204 90,792 1.755 1 in 133 2 12/19/2017 220
205 89,653 1.733 1 in 135 1 10/12/2018 135
206 88,488 1.711 1 in 137 0 Never Never
207 87,292 1.688 1 in 139 0 Never Never
208 86,073 1.664 1 in 141 2 5/25/2018 175
209 84,825 1.640 1 in 143 3 7/13/2018 161
210 83,558 1.616 1 in 145 4 1/10/2020 5
211 82,265 1.591 1 in 147 3 10/4/2019 33
212 80,956 1.565 1 in 150 2 1/29/2019 104
213 79,624 1.539 1 in 152 0 Never Never
214 78,280 1.513 1 in 155 3 1/7/2020 6
215 76,917 1.487 1 in 157 3 10/26/2018 131
216 75,544 1.461 1 in 160 2 12/17/2019 12
217 74,155 1.434 1 in 163 1 5/24/2019 71
218 72,760 1.407 1 in 166 4 12/27/2019 9
219 71,352 1.380 1 in 170 2 1/18/2019 107
220 69,941 1.352 1 in 173 0 Never Never
221 68,519 1.325 1 in 177 2 2/1/2019 103
222 67,097 1.297 1 in 180 1 11/19/2019 20
223 65,668 1.270 1 in 184 1 3/22/2019 89
224 64,241 1.242 1 in 188 3 6/4/2019 68
225 62,809 1.214 1 in 193 1 9/11/2018 144
226 61,382 1.187 1 in 197 2 10/19/2018 133
227 59,953 1.159 1 in 202 2 3/1/2019 95
228 58,531 1.132 1 in 207 1 6/14/2019 65
229 57,109 1.104 1 in 212 1 5/21/2019 72
230 55,697 1.077 1 in 217 1 10/23/2018 132
231 54,287 1.050 1 in 223 1 11/24/2017 227
232 52,889 1.023 1 in 229 1 12/31/2019 8
233 51,495 0.996 1 in 235 1 4/30/2019 78
234 50,115 0.969 1 in 242 1 9/10/2019 40
235 48,742 0.942 1 in 248 0 Never Never
236 47,384 0.916 1 in 255 1 1/3/2020 7
237 46,034 0.890 1 in 263 2 9/18/2018 142
238 44,702 0.864 1 in 271 0 Never Never
239 43,380 0.839 1 in 279 0 Never Never
240 42,077 0.814 1 in 288 1 3/19/2019 90
241 40,785 0.789 1 in 297 1 12/24/2019 10
242 39,514 0.764 1 in 306 0 Never Never
243 38,256 0.740 1 in 316 0 Never Never
244 37,020 0.716 1 in 327 0 Never Never
245 35,798 0.692 1 in 338 0 Never Never
246 34,599 0.669 1 in 350 1 8/9/2019 49
247 33,416 0.646 1 in 362 0 Never Never
248 32,257 0.624 1 in 375 0 Never Never
249 31,114 0.602 1 in 389 0 Never Never
250 29,997 0.580 1 in 403 0 Never Never
251 28,897 0.559 1 in 419 1 9/28/2018 139
252 27,823 0.538 1 in 435 1 11/7/2017 232
253 26,767 0.518 1 in 452 0 Never Never
254 25,738 0.498 1 in 470 0 Never Never
255 24,728 0.478 1 in 489 0 Never Never
256 23,745 0.459 1 in 510 0 Never Never
257 22,781 0.440 1 in 531 0 Never Never
258 21,845 0.422 1 in 554 1 12/3/2019 16
259 20,929 0.405 1 in 578 0 Never Never
260 20,041 0.387 1 in 604 0 Never Never
261 19,172 0.371 1 in 631 2 4/2/2019 86
262 18,332 0.354 1 in 660 0 Never Never
263 17,512 0.339 1 in 691 0 Never Never
264 16,720 0.323 1 in 724 0 Never Never
265 15,948 0.308 1 in 759 0 Never Never
266 15,204 0.294 1 in 796 0 Never Never
267 14,480 0.280 1 in 836 1 1/1/2019 112
268 13,784 0.267 1 in 878 1 10/18/2019 29
269 13,107 0.253 1 in 923 1 11/16/2018 125
270 12,458 0.241 1 in 972 0 Never Never
271 11,828 0.229 1 in 1,023 2 5/14/2019 74
272 11,225 0.217 1 in 1,078 0 Never Never
273 10,640 0.206 1 in 1,138 0 Never Never
274 10,082 0.195 1 in 1,200 0 Never Never
275 9,542 0.184 1 in 1,268 1 7/17/2018 160
276 9,027 0.175 1 in 1,341 0 Never Never
277 8,529 0.165 1 in 1,419 0 Never Never
278 8,056 0.156 1 in 1,502 0 Never Never
279 7,599 0.147 1 in 1,593 0 Never Never
280 7,166 0.139 1 in 1,689 0 Never Never
281 6,747 0.130 1 in 1,794 0 Never Never
282 6,351 0.123 1 in 1,906 0 Never Never
283 5,969 0.115 1 in 2,028 0 Never Never
284 5,608 0.108 1 in 2,158 0 Never Never
285 5,260 0.102 1 in 2,301 0 Never Never
286 4,932 0.095 1 in 2,454 0 Never Never
287 4,616 0.089 1 in 2,622 0 Never Never
288 4,319 0.084 1 in 2,802 0 Never Never
289 4,033 0.078 1 in 3,001 0 Never Never
290 3,765 0.073 1 in 3,215 0 Never Never
291 3,507 0.068 1 in 3,451 0 Never Never
292 3,266 0.063 1 in 3,706 0 Never Never
293 3,034 0.059 1 in 3,989 0 Never Never
294 2,818 0.054 1 in 4,295 0 Never Never
295 2,611 0.050 1 in 4,635 0 Never Never
296 2,418 0.047 1 in 5,005 0 Never Never
297 2,233 0.043 1 in 5,420 0 Never Never
298 2,062 0.040 1 in 5,870 0 Never Never
299 1,898 0.037 1 in 6,377 0 Never Never
300 1,747 0.034 1 in 6,928 0 Never Never
301 1,602 0.031 1 in 7,555 0 Never Never
302 1,469 0.028 1 in 8,239 0 Never Never
303 1,342 0.026 1 in 9,019 0 Never Never
304 1,226 0.024 1 in 9,872 0 Never Never
305 1,115 0.022 1 in 10,855 0 Never Never
306 1,014 0.020 1 in 11,936 0 Never Never
307 918 0.018 1 in 13,184 0 Never Never
308 831 0.016 1 in 14,564 0 Never Never
309 748 0.014 1 in 16,181 0 Never Never
310 674 0.013 1 in 17,957 0 Never Never
311 603 0.012 1 in 20,071 0 Never Never
312 540 0.010 1 in 22,413 0 Never Never
313 480 0.009 1 in 25,215 0 Never Never
314 427 0.008 1 in 28,344 0 Never Never
315 377 0.007 1 in 32,103 0 Never Never
316 333 0.006 1 in 36,345 0 Never Never
317 291 0.006 1 in 41,591 0 Never Never
318 255 0.005 1 in 47,463 0 Never Never
319 221 0.004 1 in 54,765 0 Never Never
320 192 0.004 1 in 63,037 0 Never Never
321 164 0.003 1 in 73,799 0 Never Never
322 141 0.003 1 in 85,837 0 Never Never
323 119 0.002 1 in 101,706 0 Never Never
324 101 0.002 1 in 119,832 0 Never Never
325 84 0.002 1 in 144,084 0 Never Never
326 70 0.001 1 in 172,900 0 Never Never
327 57 0.001 1 in 212,334 0 Never Never
328 47 0.001 1 in 257,511 0 Never Never
329 37 0.001 1 in 327,109 0 Never Never
330 30 0.001 1 in 403,434 0 Never Never
331 23 0.000 1 in 526,218 0 Never Never
332 18 0.000 1 in 672,390 0 Never Never
333 13 0.000 1 in 931,001 0 Never Never
334 10 0.000 1 in 1,210,301 0 Never Never
335 7 0.000 1 in 1,729,002 0 Never Never
336 5 0.000 1 in 2,420,603 0 Never Never
337 3 0.000 1 in 4,034,338 0 Never Never
338 2 0.000 1 in 6,051,507 0 Never Never
339 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never
340 1 0.000 1 in 12,103,010 0 Never Never

Page Last Updated: Saturday, 25 January 2020 06:05 AM

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